Should we still believe in COP?

Karthika Duraisamy Sekar
Aug 8
7 min read

Updated: Aug 12

The beginning

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its first assessment report in November 1990, highlighting the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases by human activities, urging the IPCC and the Second World Climate Conference to call for a global treaty. An Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) was established in December 1990 by the UN General Assembly for a Framework Convention on Climate Change, which discussed the different mechanisms and targets to combat climate change.

In 1992, the Earth summit held in Rio de Janeiro was the first global conference dedicated to sustainability. It led to the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNFCCC is a multilateral treaty ratified by 198 parties (197 states and the EU) with the ultimate objective of ‘stabilising the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’. The Conference of the Parties (COP) was established as the supreme body of the convention to review and facilitate the implementation of the convention. Two subsidiary bodies for Scientific and Technological Advice and Implementation were also established to support the work of the COP. In addition to the COP, these two bodies meet each year in Bonn (UNFCCC Secretariat) for interim negotiations.

Although COP in general refers to the committee created after an international treaty is signed, the acronym is widely associated with UNFCCC now. The national delegations meet annually to negotiate measures to address climate change and track progress of the outcomes of the previous COPs and the convention. The host country rotates among the five United Nations regional groups. It is the largest annual meeting convened by the United Nations and attended by government dignitaries and representatives, civil society, intergovernmental organisations, nongovernmental organisations, climate experts and media.

The first COP was held in Berlin, Germany, in 1995. The 30th meeting (COP 30) is scheduled in Belem, Brazil, from Nov 10 - 21, 2025.

Milestones

The two major milestones in the COP meetings held so far are the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Agreement (2015), named after the location of the COP.

Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol is the world’s first greenhouse gas emission reduction treaty. It was adopted at COP3 in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997. It only committed industrialised countries (including “economies in transition” in central eastern Europe) to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions by 5% below 1990 levels by 2012.

Although the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, it came into force in 2005 after complex ratifications. Developed countries were recognised as being responsible for the past and current emissions and expected to take the lead in reducing emissions and supporting the developing nations. Hence, the protocol emphasised ‘Common but Differentiated Responsibilities’ in emission reductions.

It suggested three flexible mechanisms to achieve emission reductions apart from national measures, which include clean development mechanisms, emissions trading and joint development projects. These mechanisms allow the parties to reduce emissions by investing in emission reduction projects in developing countries to earn emission reduction credits. In 2011, the Doha agreement discussed the second period of the Kyoto protocol from 2012 to 2020; however, several developing countries, the US, Japan, Russia and Canada did not commit.

The meeting of parties to the Kyoto Protocol is also held at the annual COPs, with the first one held at COP11 Montreal in Canada in 2005.

The Kyoto Protocol was never ratified by the US, and Canada withdrew from it in 2011. These countries criticised the fact that emerging economies, especially China, did not have any obligation to reduce their emissions. The Kyoto Protocol couldn’t facilitate a stronger action from both developed and developing countries, who kept quarrelling about the other parties’ responsibilities, stuck in a circular conundrum. Although some parties such as the EU managed to reduce their emissions, through the development of renewables and natural gas, and the implementation of the EU Emissions Trading System, global emissions continued to increase by about 20% between 2005 and 2015. But the protocol was the first step in bringing the world together for climate action, providing a framework for the future agreements and lessons for future negotiations.

Paris Agreement

COP13 at Bali adopted the Bali Road Map that laid the foundations for a new negotiating process for a long - term cooperative action to ensure UNFCCC’s “full, effective and sustained implementation” with a focus on shared vision, mitigation, adaptation, technology and financing. It was largely expected that the COP15 at Copenhagen, Denmark, would adopt the agreement, but it was a disaster and produced a weaker Copenhagen Accord without formal adoption. Its only legacy consisted in the commitment by rich countries to mobilise US$100 billion a year by 2020 to tackle climate change in developing countries and to limit global warming to 2°C - two elements which will be part of the Paris Agreement 6 years later.

The Cancun Agreements adopted at COP16 in Mexico were a positive step forward in the climate negotiations and were built upon the essential elements of the Copenhagen Accords. They included the national mitigation pledges and laid the initial steps for implementation of the operational elements of the accord, such as for finance, transparency, technology and capacity building support. One of the reasons for the success was the acceptance of incremental outcomes, transparency in the COP negotiations, and the invitation to achieve climate targets by the collaborative action of parties through national pledges instead of binding them to a fixed target. The Cancun agreements established the Green Climate Fund to mobilise funds to assist developing countries for mitigation and adaptation.

At COP17, Durban, the parties recognised the need for a new comprehensive legally binding agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol to be adopted in 2015, thus continuing the conversation through the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action. The draft text for the basis of negotiations that would lead to the Paris Agreement was decided at Lima, Peru (COP20).

After years of negotiations, 195 countries adopted the legally binding international treaty at COP21 in Paris, France, in 2015 that included mitigation goals, finance, adaptation, transparency, loss and damage. The countries committed to collectively limit the global temperature rise to well below 2℃, ideally below 1.5℃, pre-industrial levels. It is seen as the greatest achievement of the COPs. The party countries can set their national emission reduction targets every five years, which are submitted as the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the UNFCCC Secretariat. The meeting of parties for the Paris Agreement also takes place at the annual COPs.

Criticisms

Over the last three decades, the climate negotiations at COPs have had several issues, such as developed and developing countries’ expectations of responsibilities of the other party, major economies blocking agreements, unfavourable political scenarios, lack of diversity in representations and strained intergovernmental relations. These have led to slower progress than what we need to achieve our climate targets. Most of the COPs also saw a series of negotiations hanging open-ended and postponed multiple times, while some have seen mediocre decisions, even with extensive groundwork.

Travelling to a venue to negotiate on emissions while transportation is a significant contributor to emissions, especially aviation, is paradoxical. The sheer growth of the attendees, side events and exhibitions has the potential to divert focus in decision making while logistics and resource issues strain the host countries, in addition to the high carbon footprints.

Recent criticisms on COP include the failure to implement a fossil fuel phase- out and mobilising climate finance for developing countries. The location of the last two COPs at the UAE and Baku, which are authoritarian petro states reliant on fossil fuels, was also seen as a roadblock to negotiations. The acknowledgement to transition from fossil fuels at these COPs was weak and heavily criticised, with no roadmaps for implementation.

Should we still believe in COP?

“Every tenth of a degree global heating matters. Every year matters. Every choice matters. Every COP matters” - UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell.

Although the negotiations at COP can be frustratingly slow and seem inconclusive most of the time, they set guidelines for countries to accelerate climate action. There are other conferences and summits that only touch upon climate action, while it is the main focus at the UNFCCC COP, serving as a global stage for climate negotiations. They provide an opportunity for all sectors to come together in one place to voice their concerns, initiate action plan dialogues and assess the measures. The attention, including from the media, that one of the largest global meetings garners also plays a huge role in keeping up the momentum for collective action.

COP facilitates a technology and fund transfer to developing nations for adaptation and mitigation through several mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund, Carbon Markets, etc. They act as a catalyst in mobilising finance from developed countries and emphasise on a just transition.

The long-term progress of the summit cannot be overlooked despite its shortcomings. The process has seen itself turn its course in the past when the top-down approach of the Kyoto Protocol was not effective. Post 2010, the dialogues shifted to a bottom-down approach offering countries flexibility by encouraging them to set their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) strengthened by transparency and accountability. This ensured a wider participation. Even with differing opinions, COPs can serve their purpose over time, for which the road to the Paris Agreement and its successful adoption can be cited as an example.

We have seen how each COP was built upon the successes and failures of the previous COPs. Although the negotiations appear to be stalled, often linked to national political contexts, they continue to trigger small yet impactful changes through collaboration and inclusivity. With climate action on the global agenda, it's time we make the convention serve the planet and people better by rethinking the structure of COP.

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